The Oil Gusher #411: 2H20 watch-list: Upcoming catalysts to take us into 2021 - BofA
EMEA Equity Research Daily Highlights
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EMEA Equity Research Daily Highlights
Anglo American: Diamonds (finally) inflect; Reiterate BUY
Vodafone Group: H1 headwinds
The Oil Gusher #411: 2H20 watch-list: Upcoming catalysts to take us into 2021
Informa: Increasingly “vigilant”, but still bullish
Dufry: PE involvement in rights issue
SCOR: Ready and raring for renewals season; upgrading estimates and PO
EMEA Equity Research Daily Highlights
Anglo American: Diamonds (finally) inflect; Reiterate BUY
• It appears that the diamond market is now 'open' after several months of limited sales. Early days, but a 'turn' is positive.
• DeBeers reported its 7th sales cycle at $320 mn, nearly 3x cycle 6 and up +11% on 2019. Alrosa also reported strong sales.
• We see diamonds as an 'at the money' option for Anglo American. Maintain BUY, price objective GBp2400.
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Vodafone Group: H1 headwinds
• VOD at an attractive entry point post underperformance, but H1 results are unlikely to be a catalyst due to seasonal phasing.
• Peak roaming, Italy comps weigh on Q2, -60bps QoQ to -1.9% service rev growth. H1 EBITDA -3.2% lags FY outlook, but H2 +0.4%.
• Fundamentals intact: strong cash flow generation, improving mix, well covered divi and inorganic deleverage tailwinds. Buy.
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The Oil Gusher #411: 2H20 watch-list: Upcoming catalysts to take us into 2021
• With 1H20 marking generational milestones in the O&G sector, we look forward to quieter months to year-end, centred around...
• ...more catalysts showcasing the sector's accelerating shift to Big Energy:
• We outline our expectations for upcoming catalysts (CMDs, key projects & pipelines) core to Europe's oil & gas equity stories
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Informa: Increasingly “vigilant”, but still bullish
• We continue to like INF shares (PO 630p) into the 1H update (21/9 as we expect positive news on 1) Chinese trading,
• 2) Cost cutting, 3) Liquidity & 4) steady trends in non-Events units. Negatives are 1) US$ weakness, 2) Non-Chinese Events
• but this seems priced in. Events are valued at 5x '19 EV/EBITA and Informa overall is at a 25% discount to pre COVID levels.
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Dufry: PE involvement in rights issue
• Dufry have announced its previously announced rights issue will be for 500m CHF. Larger than expected; opportunistic given...
• ... Advent International have committed to 415m CHF investment. Existing shareholders priority, Advent to take surplus
• Advent getting seat on the board. All to be approved 6 Oct EGM. Liquidity strong, valuation still depressed. Reit Buy. 55 PO.
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SCOR: Ready and raring for renewals season; upgrading estimates and PO
• SCOR delivered a positive update at its 2020 investor day; we upgrade our outer year est's to reflect bullish P&C ambitions
• SCOR has confirmed the end of its P&C pruning, providing a clean base for growth. A positive Life update should also reassure
• Our PO rises 7% to EUR 37 suggesting 57% total return potential. SCOR is our preferred reinsurance pick; reiterate Buy
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